While planning new industries have not yet finalized, but the state of new energy policies to support the auto industry is out in advance. This week two, just enter in June, the NDRC, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry, Science and Technology have jointly issued a document "on the purchase of new energy vehicles for carry out the subsidies for private pilot rating "requirement in Shanghai, Changchun, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, in five pilot cities. Just in the past day, the Ministry of Finance has four ministries jointly issued a notice, in 13 cities in 2009, bus drivers, taxis and other areas of promotion of the use of vehicles with low consumption energy conservation and new, based on an increase in Tianjin, Haikou, Zhengzhou, Xiamen, Suzhou, Guangzhou city of Tangshan and seven drivers, saving utilities and demonstration of new energy vehicles to promote extended 20 pilot cities. The industry has accepted "public Securities News" interview, said she is committed to promoting the development of new energy vehicles, new energy vehicles in 2012 will exceed 100,000 mark, while his main areas - Dell 1691P Battery power, will come in the period of high speed development, a group of excellent companies grow rapidly.

Three-year average growth of 50%

According to "buy on the launch of new energy vehicles to subsidize private pilot rating" requirement, the new energy vehicles refers mainly to the plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) and pure electric vehicles (BEV), according 3000 yuan / kWh subsidies, plug-in hybrid grant maximum 50,000 yuan, 60,000 yuan to subsidize more electric and hybrid (HEV) are considered energy-efficient cars, only 3,000 one-time grant.

"3,000 yuan / kWh subsidy to cover the cost of the battery has exceeded market expectations." Yesterday, that long-term follow-up and did a lot of depth CRE research intensive Securities electrical equipment industry researcher LI Da-June to the New Securities popular, analysts say there are three aspects of subsidy policy of market expectations, only one of them.

It is understood that the cost of the lithium iron phosphate in the base of 3000-5000 yuan / kWh between the two. BYD is less expensive than 3.000 yuan / kWh, an average of 9-10 per Wanxiang Group / HA, which is equivalent to the price of 3.000 yuan per kWh, the power of God Tianjin for upscale clientele, mainly for exports to the United States, cost of raw materials, the price of the battery 4000-5000 yuan / kWh.

LI Da-Jun, on this analysis, the battery capacity in accordance with the current subsidy policy will accelerate the development of small electric vehicles, new energy vehicles in 2012 exceed 100,000 mark, which can lead to industry batteries, the market size of $ 6.0 billion over the next 3 years compound annual growth of over 50%. This is the second of schedule.

The third is the rumor of the industry that provided the highest in each city will develop 20,000 vehicles, but "an opinion" there is no clear boundary.

Guoxin Securities has also recently released a report recently called China's new energy managers in venture capital to open a conference call, the prospects of development of new energy industries. Ultimately form the conclusion that, after years of rapid development of wind energy has three 50 billion market capitalization of listed companies is imminent or is born, solar energy has more than 3 billion of dollars more than the market value of listed companies, these two sectors for venture capital as new opportunities have not, however, new cars in the world of energy has just begun, is the first stage is conducive to investment in venture capital is at the heart of the capital investment risk.

Half the cost will drop in 2012

For grants, there are 863 projects, experts said the main purpose of the grants are three: First, develop the market, the second is the discovery and improvement of the problem, three is to reduce the cost. Through grants, the government hopes in 2012, the cost of the battery can be reduced by half (now 5.4 yuan / wh, should reduce to 2 yuan / wh below), when the iron phosphate and lithium will have some degree of market competitiveness, which could be to promote new energy vehicles break 100,000 mark annually.

Experts estimate that 100 000 new energy vehicles in the catchment, firstly to reduce battery costs by farm size, on the other hand, exposure to new car batteries from the power, control electronics, automotive and other matters conducive to the promotion of industrial development in the end.

In addition to the Ministry of Finance of the subsidy policy, local governments will also be another grant. It is reported that grants from local authorities in various ways, including Shanghai, are exempt from licensing fees for new energy vehicles, valued at 3-4 million Shenzhen individuals or groups purchasing additional subsidies for new energy vehicles 20,000 yuan; toll collection without Chongqing three years, worth about 20,000 yuan; Hangzhou fiscal 2010, organized in the energy-saving 20 million yuan of special funds and vehicles new energy.

LI Da-June that the subsidy policy of the local government will be a zoom effect, "If the Ministry of Finance of the grant may cover the cost of the COMPAQ PRESARIO 1700 Battery, and vehicle control new electronic energy costs higher ( 1 million per) and the cost of the engine (2 million) may be supplemented by grants from local authorities. "

After a series of grants, the price of new energy vehicles will be gradually accepted by consumers. Also to help consumers to accept that the future use of low cost, since the use of existing petrol vehicles cost about 0.5 yuan / km (100 km on average less than 9 liters of price of petrol), and overhead electric vehicles only 0.1 yuan / km (16-100 km power calculation), much lower than gasoline.

In addition to the five pilot cities in addition to subsidies for passenger cars, buses, taxis and other public services, subsidies to business methods of execution are still means in accordance with 2009 last year to 1000 the city has evolved to become a city 20 1000 - 2009 for more than 5,000 vehicles in 2010 is expected to quickly 2-3000000. LI Da-Jun that this application will be the driving force behind the battery.

The concept of progressive implementation of lithium batteries

In the stock market, the concept of new energy vehicles and battery were fired two rounds, it took three or four years - the mining industry in Tibet (000,762) Diagram of the K line can be clearly verified , although up to now, the Saline Lake Lithium Resources yet to produce benefits, but also directed the company issuing 1.5 billion refinancing, this large sum of money was 2.5 times net assets.

However, the battery power is still a new concept of the status quo is changed slowly, but the pace of change may be faster than expected. LI Da-Jun was a period of time divided - 2009 is a "concept" stage, in 2010 a "Bud" stage, and in 2011, will drive the "development" stage, increasing gradually distinguished tradition lithium and lithium batteries.

Although Ni-MH battery 2009 and lithium batteries are not under-winning, industry full battery has the ability but to purchase "private new vehicles to subsidize pilot energy" policy setting Instead, the situation will change.

"The key tasks in 2010 is of lithium and nickel-metal hydride batteries separately. But in the battery, nickel metal hydride battery is essentially no possibility of development. "LI Da-Jun, said nickel-metal hydride batteries, lead acid market share of the battery will decrease, but not death, but the growth of HP F4809A Battery is much more than nickel-metal hydride batteries in the development of lead-acid, "is an important current strategies for stock selection."

A battery of measures in urgent need of transformation

LI Da-Jun, said the life of the lithium battery, consistency, primarily to solve the battery problems, costs will decrease gradually. In addition, according to experts, the search for internal lithium battery and the level of development has reached the advanced international level, but in processing, manufacturing, infrastructure, basic materials companies still have gaps.

It is understood that the most outstanding areas of the energy of the internal lithium battery companies have not yet listed in the stock market, such as production of the battery power of God, BYD, energy production in Dongguan new raw material cathode North Hunan Xiang Rui, Tianjin think Maitland.

"The domestic production of certain electrolyte lithium upscale, anode material or can be used in the film may not yet be used." LI Da-jun said that the main demand of new energy vehicles, not really out on a large scale in the future for continued stimulation, will be gradually changed. It gives the sense recommended by the company, first a list is as follows: The battery must be involved in power management technology is better, the "new efforts of the energy policy of broad support vehicles, the development path was clear long term, the market requires the progressive culture, progress can be expected to benefit more from a larger battery, lithium battery for long-term development is the trend. Recommended Huafang textile Shanshangufen, Jiangsu Cathay Pacific, the new state-chou. "

Link 1: Hua Fang Textile: Lithium iron phosphate Dark Horse

Huafang textiles (600 273), a stock of Dark Horse lithium battery technology, the scale of lead. The battery is in full production in 2010 could contribute to EPS0.10 dollars. revenue share of 11% battery is expected, which represents 27% of gross profit.

Battery power: has been sold out. 7 Lithium production line design, is a production line in full production, China has sold 50,000 monomer, China and Taiwan have ordered some are exported to Europe and the United States, quality of products and complete than the national standard are mainly used in electric bikes, etc., high power automotive battery research and development phase. Profit of 15 million yuan by 2010. The local government and business leaders attached great importance to the project, recruited a large number of senior experts in APPLE A1185 Battery technology to accelerate the form of shares.

Electrolyte: nominal capacity of 5,000 tons, online world in the production of lithium iron phosphate electrolyte. Line installation, quality of the production line has been the United States, Japan, South Korea is widely recognized and have the possibility of cooperation. Production is expected in June, is now available to order. expected profit of 15 million yuan by 2010. CRE

Link 2: Jiangsu Guotai: first the electrolyte China

Jiangsu Guotai (002 091) Huarong subsidiary is the first electrolyte national companies, market share of 30% -40% of technology across the entire country, 150% of capacity expansion and the benefits more rapidly. electrolyte production of 2,500 tons in 2008, the production capacity of 2000 tons, 125% capacity utilization, demand for products. Electrolyte in the industry chain of the battery in the new energy sector is high technology, the market is expected gross margin of 40%. 3,000 tons of online projects, the firm's total capacity of 5,000 tons, the market should total production capacity will be the first in the world, Ube Japan over 3750 tons, 3410 tons of Samsung. CRE

Link 3: Shanshangufen Hi to lead the industry in the full battery

Shanshangufen (600 884) the presentation of an industrial chain, are key elements in the competitiveness of business income lithium battery reached 1 billion yuan, accounting for 40% more than the first. Once the application for discharge of the battery, scale effects appear, can greatly improve the profitability of the company. equipment depreciation and the cost of lower margins caused by the company, once the motive power market to open the company to exploit the advantages of size, profitability will be greatly improved. Toda of Japan, Itochu cooperation in management, technology and markets have more SONY PCGA-BP2NX Battery.